The determinants of stock market development: estimation by ARDL in the case of Algeria
Abstract
This empirical study analyses the factors that determine the development of the stock market in Algeria over the period 2011-2024, using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The results show that GDP per capita has a negative and significant effect on stock market capitalization in the short term, but a positive effect in the long term. Inflation negatively impacts stock market capitalization both in the short and long term, while the real interest rate affects it negatively only in the short term. The value of traded stocks shows a negative relationship in the short term and a positive one in the long term. Furthermore, the money supply exerts a significant positive effect in the long term. These findings highlight the importance of macroeconomic factors in the dynamics of the Algerian stock market.
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