Use of mathematical models to determine the severity of the Corona pandemic in Algeria for the period (01/03/2020 to 10/04/2020)

Abstract

The United Nations is the only country in the world that has been able to overcome the crisis. In the same context, scientists and researchers of all disciplines strive to find out the causes and methods of the spread of this virus and even its behavior. In our turn, we seek to study the behaviour of this virus through what is known as epidemiological modelling aimed at optimalunderstanding of the spread of the disease or epidemic, and it helps epidemiologists with very important fundamental issues such as: predicting the speed and magnitude of the spread of the epidemic, the effectiveness of the intervention strategy, testing hypotheses about transmission of the disease, control measures and the effects of migration ... Etc. This is why we will use the so-called SIR model to study the severity and spread of the Corona pandemic in Algeria between 01/03/2020 and 10/04/2020 by identifying an important parameter called the 'R0 reproduction rate' that determines the speed of the spread of the virus, in addition to calculating the rate of CFR infection that determines the severity of this epidemic in beginning, and accordingly determines the risk surrounding the population