The Forecasting for the contribution of the tourism sector in the ‎Algerian economy

Abstract

This study aims at revealing the reality of the economic contribution of the tourism sector in the Algerian economy during the period 1995-2016, as well as building an econometric model for forecasting its future directions in the year 2020, using the Box-Jenkins methodology and following the descriptive statistical approach. The results of the study showed a significant improvement in the economic contribution of the tourism sector, but this improvement has not yet reached the level to achieve the desired goals, which remains relatively weak and is expected to not exceed the barrier of 3.93% in 2020, according to current data, which indicates the failure of government performance in winning the bet to promote tourism development. Therefore, the study recommended that the Country seek to rehabilitate the tourism sector within the economic policy, as it is the right way to win the battle to promote tourism development in Algeria