هل تعزز التحويلات المالية للمهاجرين النمو الاقتصادي؟ أدلة تجريبية من الجزائر باستخدام منهجية ARDL
الملخص
هدفت هذه الدراسة إلى تحليل أثر التحويلات المالية على النمو الاقتصادي في الجزائر خلال الفترة من 1980 إلى 2023، حيث استخدمت الدراسة نموذج الانحدار الذاتي للفجوات الزمنية الموزعة (ARDL) لقياس آثار التحويلات المالية على النمو الاقتصادي في كل من المدى القصير والطويل، مع دمج متغيرات تحكم رئيسية تشمل تكوين رأس المال الثابت، التضخم، وأسعار النفط. ففي المدى الطويل أظهرت النتائج أن التحويلات المالية للمهاجرين لها تأثير سلبي وغير دال إحصائيا على النمو الاقتصادي، في حين كان تأثيرًه محدودا في المدى القصير، مما يعكس الطابع الاستهلاكي لهذه التحويلات، إضافة إلى تحويل جزء معتبر من هذه التحويلات المالية عبر القنوات غير الرسمية بسبب الفجوة بين سعر الصرف في السوق الموازي والرسمي، في حين كان لمتغير تكوين رأس المال تأثير إيجابي ومعنوي قوي، بالمقابل كان لكل من التضخم وأسعار النفط ارتباط سلبي وهام بالنمو الاقتصادي في المدى الطويل .وخلصت الدراسة أن التحويلات ذات فعالية محدودة في تعزيز النمو الاقتصادي في كل من المدى القصير والطويل في الجزائر، الأمر الذي يتطلب تضييق فجوة سعر الصرف للحد من التحويلات غير الرسمية، وتعزيز القنوات المالية الرسمية، وتحسين بيئة الاستثمار لتشجيع الاستخدام الإنتاجي لهذه التحويلات المالية دعما للنمو الاقتصادي المستدام.
التنزيلات
المراجع
Ait Benhamou, Z., & Cassin, L. (2021). The impact of remittances on savings, capital and economic growth in small emerging countries. Economic Modelling, 94, 789–803. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2020.02.019
Alsamara, M. (2022). Do labor remittance outflows retard economic growth in Qatar? Evidence from nonlinear cointegration. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 83, 1–9. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2021.11.002
Berument, M. H., Ceylan, N. B., & Dogan, N. (2010). The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the Economic Growth of Selected MENA1 Countries. The Energy Journal, 31(1), 149–176. https://doi.org/10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol31-No1-7
Boutalby, H., & Bensaid, M. (2022). The impact of migrant remittances on economic growth in Algeria An econometric study during the period 1970-2019 (Vol. 5, Issue 3).
Bucevska, V. (2022). Impact of Remittances on Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from South-East European Countries. South East European Journal of Economics and Business, 17(1), 79–94. https://doi.org/10.2478/jeb-2022-0006
Chami, R., Fullenkamp, C., & Jahjah, S. (2005). Are Immigrant Remittance Flows a Source of Capital for Development? IMF Staff Papers, 52(1), 55–81.
Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series With a Unit Root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366), 427. https://doi.org/10.2307/2286348
Fischer, S. (1993). The role of macroeconomic factors in growth. Journal of Monetary Economics, 32(3), 485–512. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(93)90027-D
Kamara, A. M., Sallam, M. A. M., & Ebrahim, E. E. M. (2025). Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rates and Oil Prices on Inflation in Egypt. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 15(3), 486–497. https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.18484
Khan, I. (2024). Analyzing the impact of positive and negative remittance inflow shocks on economic growth of India. Journal of Economic Studies, 51(2), 338–356. https://doi.org/10.1108/JES-02-2023-0089
Mutai, N. C., Ibeh, L., Nguyen, M. C., Kiarie, J. W., & Ikamari, C. (2025). Sustainable economic development in Kenya: influence of diaspora remittances, foreign direct investment and imports. African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, 16(1), 61–78. https://doi.org/10.1108/AJEMS-01-2024-0059
Necib, A., & Kerrache, A. (2025). The impact of Algerian migrants remittances on economic growth: an ARDL bound test approach. Journal of Excellence for Economics and Management Research, 09(01), 186–201. https://doi.org/10.34118/jeemr.v9i1.4217
Ofori, P. E., & Grechyna, D. (2021). Remittances, natural resource rent and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. Cogent Economics & Finance, 9(1). https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2021.1979305
Pal, S., Villanthenkodath, M. A., Patel, G., & Mahalik, M. K. (2022). The impact of remittance inflows on economic growth, unemployment and income inequality: An international evidence. International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, 16(1), 211–235. https://doi.org/10.1007/s42495-021-00074-1
Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616
Phillips, P. C. B., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335. https://doi.org/10.2307/2336182
Ratha, D. (2013). The Impact of Remittances on Economic Growth and Poverty Reduction. www.knomad.org/powerpoints/
Roy, A. (2023). Nexus between economic growth, external debt, oil price, and remittances in India: New insight from novel DARDL simulations. Resources Policy, 83, 103742. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.103742
Zardoub, A., & Sboui, F. (2023). Impact of foreign direct investment, remittances and official development assistance on economic growth: panel data approach. PSU Research Review, 7(2), 73–89. https://doi.org/10.1108/PRR-04-2020-0012
Ait Benhamou, Z., & Cassin, L. (2021). The impact of remittances on savings, capital and economic growth in small emerging countries. Economic Modelling, 94, 789–803. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2020.02.019
Alsamara, M. (2022). Do labor remittance outflows retard economic growth in Qatar? Evidence from nonlinear cointegration. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 83, 1–9. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2021.11.002
Berument, M. H., Ceylan, N. B., & Dogan, N. (2010). The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the Economic Growth of Selected MENA1 Countries. The Energy Journal, 31(1), 149–176. https://doi.org/10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol31-No1-7
Boutalby, H., & Bensaid, M. (2022). The impact of migrant remittances on economic growth in Algeria An econometric study during the period 1970-2019 (Vol. 5, Issue 3).
Bucevska, V. (2022). Impact of Remittances on Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from South-East European Countries. South East European Journal of Economics and Business, 17(1), 79–94. https://doi.org/10.2478/jeb-2022-0006
Chami, R., Fullenkamp, C., & Jahjah, S. (2005). Are Immigrant Remittance Flows a Source of Capital for Development? IMF Staff Papers, 52(1), 55–81.
Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series With a Unit Root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366), 427. https://doi.org/10.2307/2286348
Fischer, S. (1993). The role of macroeconomic factors in growth. Journal of Monetary Economics, 32(3), 485–512. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(93)90027-D
Kamara, A. M., Sallam, M. A. M., & Ebrahim, E. E. M. (2025). Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rates and Oil Prices on Inflation in Egypt. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 15(3), 486–497. https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.18484
Khan, I. (2024). Analyzing the impact of positive and negative remittance inflow shocks on economic growth of India. Journal of Economic Studies, 51(2), 338–356. https://doi.org/10.1108/JES-02-2023-0089
Mutai, N. C., Ibeh, L., Nguyen, M. C., Kiarie, J. W., & Ikamari, C. (2025). Sustainable economic development in Kenya: influence of diaspora remittances, foreign direct investment and imports. African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, 16(1), 61–78. https://doi.org/10.1108/AJEMS-01-2024-0059
Necib, A., & Kerrache, A. (2025). The impact of Algerian migrants remittances on economic growth: an ARDL bound test approach. Journal of Excellence for Economics and Management Research, 09(01), 186–201. https://doi.org/10.34118/jeemr.v9i1.4217
Ofori, P. E., & Grechyna, D. (2021). Remittances, natural resource rent and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. Cogent Economics & Finance, 9(1). https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2021.1979305
Pal, S., Villanthenkodath, M. A., Patel, G., & Mahalik, M. K. (2022). The impact of remittance inflows on economic growth, unemployment and income inequality: An international evidence. International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, 16(1), 211–235. https://doi.org/10.1007/s42495-021-00074-1
Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616
Phillips, P. C. B., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335. https://doi.org/10.2307/2336182
Ratha, D. (2013). The Impact of Remittances on Economic Growth and Poverty Reduction. www.knomad.org/powerpoints/
Roy, A. (2023). Nexus between economic growth, external debt, oil price, and remittances in India: New insight from novel DARDL simulations. Resources Policy, 83, 103742. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.103742
Zardoub, A., & Sboui, F. (2023). Impact of foreign direct investment, remittances and official development assistance on economic growth: panel data approach. PSU Research Review, 7(2), 73–89. https://doi.org/10.1108/PRR-04-2020-0012
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